Fooled By Randomness

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588367673
Size: 15.93 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 24

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Kleines Handbuch F R Den Umgang Mit Unwissen

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag
ISBN: 9783641119911
Size: 19.93 MB
Format: PDF
View: 23

Eine kurze Anleitung in der Kunst des klaren Denkens „Bewusste Unwissenheit erweitert die Erfahrungswelt, gesetzt den Fall, man weiß sie zu nutzen.“ Wie uns Denkfehler, falsche Kategorien und blinde Flecken immer wieder ein Schnippchen schlagen, damit beschäftigt sich der Professor für Risikoforschung und Bestsellerautor Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In diesem Handbuch entlarvt er die Begrenztheit unserer Statistikgläubigkeit genauso wie die Voreingenommenheiten unseres Denkens und zeigt, wie wir mit dem, was wir nicht wissen, gewinnbringend umgehen können. Denn: „Für den einen ist ein Irrtum bloß ein Irrtum, für den anderen ist er eine Information.“

Incerto 4 Book Bundle

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 9780812997699
Size: 14.24 MB
Format: PDF
View: 86

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Incerto

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN: 9780399590450
Size: 15.34 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
View: 47

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab≤ it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Antifragilit T

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag
ISBN: 9783641091200
Size: 13.74 MB
Format: PDF
View: 65

Taleb ist einer der prägenden Denker des 21. Jahrhunderts – Antifragilität ist sein zentrales Werk In seinem Weltbestseller Der Schwarze Schwan problematisierte Nassim Nicholas Taleb die zunehmende Unberechenbarkeit der Welt. Jetzt liegt sein wichtigstes Buch vor: In Antifragilität liefert „der führende Denker unserer Zeit“ (Times) eine wirkmächtige Gebrauchsanweisung, wie wir selbst, unsere Unternehmen und Strukturen, Chaos und unberechenbare Ereignisse nicht nur überstehen, sondern sogar davon profitieren können. Denn alles, was nicht antifragil ist, wird verschwinden. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, der Aufklärer und Schreck aller „Versicherer“ und Analysten schickt in seinem neuen Buch heutiges Risikomanagement und Prognostik in die Wüste. Nicht indem wir Zufälle und Ungewissheit um jeden Preis abzuwehren versuchen, gewinnen wir, sondern indem wir sie zu Stärken ummünzen. Talebs Konzept der Antifragilität ist eine große, praktisch-philosophische Antwort auf die Herausforderungen unsicherer Zeiten. Seine Beispiele bedienen das ganze Spektrum von Finanzen und Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft, Privatleben. Er zeigt, warum kleine Strukturen besser sind als große, Stadtstaaten besser als Nationen, warum Silicon Valley mehr Erfolg hat als das Bankensystem, warum Zahnärzte und LKWFahrer antifragiler sind als Bischöfe und Geschäftsführer, warum Schulden abhängig machen und warum alles, was zu kompliziert ist, von der Bildfläche verschwinden wird. Multidisziplinär und mit großer Übersicht umreißt Antifragilität ein neues Denken für eine Welt, die bei allem Fortschritt niemals berechenbar sein wird.

Der Schwarze Schwan

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag
ISBN: 9783641171933
Size: 12.99 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
View: 63

Talebs Weltbestseller endlich wieder im Handel erhältlich. „Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse“ und „Der Schwarze Schwan: Konsequenzen aus der Krise“ erstmals komplett in einem Band und eingeleitet mit einem neuen Essay des Autors. Nassim Nicholas Talebs Definition ist weltberühmt geworden: Ein “Schwarzer Schwan” ist ein Ereignis, auf das drei Dinge zutreffen: Es ist erstens ein Ausreißer – es liegt außerhalb der regulären Erwartungen, nichts in der Vergangenheit weist darauf hin. Es hat zweitens enorme Auswirkungen. Drittens bringt uns die menschliche Natur dazu, im Nachhinein Erklärungen für sein Eintreten zu konstruieren, um es erklärbar und vorhersagbar zu machen. In diesem bahnbrechenden Buch, das mittlerweile weltweit zum Klassiker geworden ist, entwickelt Taleb seine einflussreiche Denkfigur und Maxime für die ungewisse Realität, in der wir leben und handeln.